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Business English: Montenegro vote: conflict and disillusion
The European Union may be watching but an outright win in May's referendum on independence is unlikely, and even a clear result may not be accepted by some.Masan Buskovic never questioned union with Serbia, until independence campaigners offered to take care of his unpaid €1,580 electricity bill. "Whatever we promise, it will be done. And we want you to vote for Montenegro, or not go to the polls," one of the activists said in a meeting at Mr Buskovic's house. The bribe attempt was caught on video and released as the unionist opposition's campaign opening shot in the run-up to the republic's May 21 referendum on independence.
Montenegro's loose union with Serbia is the last vestige of the former Yugoslavia, the multi-ethnic federation that broke apart violently in the 1990s. Almost no one thinks the forthcoming referendum will unfold cleanly, even under European Union monitoring. But all parties have agreed to a special formula, requiring 55 per cent of votes cast, instead of a simple majority, to achieve secession.
Unionists, who had threatened to boycott the referendum, say the plan proposed by the EU's foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, partly makes up for abuses by a corrupt government. Milo Djukanovic, Montenegro's ex-communist prime minister, has used state-run media to promote independence for the past three years, the unionists say. State employees allegedly fear losing their jobs if they fail to "vote for Montenegro", a small society of less than 700,000. The authorities, trying to distance themselves from vote-rigging, arrested the campaigners caught in the bribe video.
Prime Minister Djukanovic says that Europe has imposed an unfair handicap against independence to appease Serbia, a country that still "tackles others' issues instead of its own". He is confident of winning anyway, he says. A poll shows 52 per cent of Montenegrin voters firmly support independence amid expectations of better living standards and faster EU integration. Srdjan Darmanovic, professor of political science at the University of Montenegro, says he sees a "55 per cent chance of reaching 55 per cent". However, a high voter turnout could create a difficult gap for the separatist government to close. "The last reserves of votes are from the elderly, ill or illiterate," Prof Darmanovic says. "Among that population, pro-union parties have more potential votes." Even unionist leaders do not pretend to expect an outright win. Instead, they aim for a result in the "grey zone", keeping the "yes" votes for independence between 50-55 per cent.
Legally, this is the same as a "no" vote. But Mr Djukanovic is unlikely to resign for falling short of the EU's arbitrary bar. "Brussels will have to find a course of action" or face an "institutional mess," Prof Darmanovic says. Serbia's moderate leadership relies, at the union level, on Montenegrin secessionists, who can withdraw their support any time. But disappointed unionists, too, could cause trouble inside Montenegro, especially in northern municipalities where ethnic Serb identification appears strongest.
Both sides' political machines are working hard to convince undecided voters, believed to account for up to 15 per cent of the electorate. Ethnic minorities, especially Montenegro's roughly 47,000 Albanians, could tip the balance. Serbian nationalists also claim rights over Kosovo, the 90 per cent ethnic-Albanian province to the east of Montenegro. UN administrators and western diplomats say that formal independence for Kosovo is practically inevitable by the end of this year.
Montenegro's capital, Podgorica, largely ignores Belgrade, 250km to the north-east. "We're already divorced," says Ranko Krivokapic, speaker of the Montenegro parliament. Questions remain over how to divide assets and Serbia looks reluctant to split the military command. But leaders on both sides deny similarities to the Yugoslav conflagration in the 1990s. Andrija Mandic, president of the pro-union Serb People's Party of Montenegro, promises: "The day after, both sides must shake hands and accept the result as freely given by citizens."
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FTD.de, 27.04.2006
© 2006 Financial Times Deutschland,
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