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Business English: Shippers chart polar bypass for clogged global trade routes

The emergence of a northern passage across the Arctic connecting the Atlantic and Pacific oceans could not be happening at a more propitious time. von David Ibison (Stockholm)

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Shippers chart polar bypass for clogged global trade routes

The Arctic is not just about oil and gas. A ship travelling at 21 knots between Rotterdam and Yokohama takes 29 days if it goes via the Cape of Good Hope, 22 days via the Suez Canal and just 15 days if it goes across the Arctic Ocean. In coming years the Arctic will dramatically alter the dynamics of global trade. A combination of global warming melting the ice and new shipping technology means polar shipping routes will open up in the next few years, drastically reducing the time it takes for container traffic to travel from Asia's booming manufacturing centres to the west's consumer markets. While it is possible for container ships to travel across the Arctic now, the amount of ice in winter makes travel extremely difficult, or too slow and expensive if the ships are accompanied by ice breakers. But this will all change as the ice disappears in coming years. The emergence of a northern passage across the Arctic connecting the Atlantic and Pacific oceans could not be happening at a more propitious time as far as global trade routes are concerned. It is estimated that 90 per cent of all the goods in the world, measured in tonnes, are transported by sea, and rapid global economic growth, fuelled by China and India, means existing routes are becoming clogged. Container shipments on international routes have increased annually by between 5 and 7 per cent in recent years, in line with world trade, meaning the volume of shipments approximately doubles every 10 to 15 years. The Suez Canal can handle ships with a draught - the depth of water needed for a ship to float - of up to 19 metres, which is sufficient for the largest current container ships but not for the next generation. It is also operating at its maximum capacity, with between 16,000 and 18,000 ships passing through annually. Long queues are commonplace. The Panama Canal is suitable for ships with a draught of up to 11.3 metres, too small for ships that are now common on longer shipping routes. The Panama government has plans to increase the capacity of the canal, build new locks and deepen and widen the channels. But the planned extensions are not sufficient for a new generation of heavier vessels. The Arctic is set to become an increasingly important route for world trade, highlighting the need for multilateral agreements over navigation rights and the application of international law in the region.

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