More seed is needed to feed the demand for livestock
This latter trend has slowed as falling oil prices have reduced demand for alternative fuels. However, with
crude prices rallying, this could change. "If we have oil prices in this higher range [of over $70 a barrel], then
biofuels will be almost unstoppable unless you start legislating against them," says Steve Wiggins, agricultural economist and research fellow at the UK's Overseas Development Institute. "And producing biofuels on a large scale tends to push up the price of food."
At the same time, rising incomes in emerging markets have prompted a shift in eating habits, with meat consumption increasing, leading to a higher demand for
grain. Christopher Barrett, a Cornell University development economist specialising in poverty and hunger says: "It takes many more cereals and
oilseed to generate
poultry, meat and eggs than it does to eat the cereals and oilseeds directly."
Prof Barrett also points to slowing growth in agricultural yield during the past 20 years due to lack of investment in research and development. "We've not yet addressed the need to restore agricultural R&D, especially in the developing world," he says. "And even when we do, it'll take some years before we begin to enjoy the fruits of that."
Meanwhile, the recent economic and financial crisis has added to the pressure. In many developing countries, food prices remain high while incomes have shrunk. And it is the world's poorest that suffer the most: families in developing countries spend up to 70 per cent of their income on food, compared with 5 to 10 per cent in the US. The Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that the added impact of the downturn will push the number of hungry people in the world over the 1bn mark this year.
In the longer term, the biggest uncertainty is climate change. As well as changing temperatures and increasing frequency of
severe weather events, growing water scarcity will have a dramatic effect on global farm yields, as demonstrated recently by the severe droughts in Kenya and Australia.
Effects of climate change
In a recent report, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) predicts that the effects of climate change would add an additional 20 per cent to the
child malnutrition rate by 2050 and that agricultural productivity investments of more than $7bn would be needed to offset this effect.
But while most agree that the crisis is severe and will worsen, debates over how it should be addressed are
fierce. In July, world leaders pledged to commit $20bn over three years to a "food security initiative". The
commitment reflects a shift from aid to the development of agriculture in poor countries. However, aid agencies remain sceptical about whether the funds will materialise and how they will be spent.
"Everyone has recognised the volatility of global food markets as a key threat to food stability," says Frederic Mousseau, a humanitarian policy advisor at Oxfam. "But the rich countries and international institutions haven't really come out with any new thinking on how to deal with volatility - they keep proposing the same old recipes."
Moves by governments to subsidise fertilisers for poor farmers can help. In Malawi, a widely watched scheme has boosted production. "There's evidence that
fertiliser subsidies in Malawi and elsewhere have had some short-term benefits," says Mark Rosegrant, director of the IFPRI's environment and production technology division. "But it would be useful to consider whether you really want to put all that money into fertiliser subsidies compared to longer-term productivity investments like
crop research."
Variations in climate, geography and population density across the world mean that boosting food production is a complex business. Mr Rosegrant argues that micro, rather than macro approaches are needed, particularly in Africa. "One of the reasons the green revolution never really took off in Africa is you have to breed for much more diverse environments," he says. "So you need specially-targeted research strategies."
Market liberalisation
Also widely debated is market liberalisation. During the food crisis, moves by some countries to introduce import bans to protect their farmers
raised alarm bells, with many arguing that these "beggar-thy-neighbour" policies exacerbated the price crisis. However, Mr Mousseau warns against the
one-size-fits-all approach to market liberalisation. "There should be space for countries to decide what their best options are," he says. This might mean some governments introducing a level of protection for their farmers, while in regions such as West Africa, agreements facilitating trade would make more sense. "It's about pragmatism, finding the right solutions and moving away from ideology," says Mr Mousseau.
Among the aims of the recent $20bn commitment is connecting
smallholder farmers with markets. Bringing smallholders into global food chains will require everything from improving roads to building new communications systems. Mobile phone technology has helped, giving farmers in remote areas access to real-time commodities prices and facilitating money transfers. Also critical is providing farmers with access to credit so they can purchase the inputs needed to boost their production. The IFC is encouraging global commodities traders to extend financing to smallholders and is also providing liquidity to banks that will lend to small-scale farmers. One scheme established by the Rockefeller and Gates foundations - the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa - is providing guarantees to local banks so that they can advance seasonal credit to small farmers. "That kind of
savvy intervention has come from private foundations but there's no reason governments can't do those kinds of deals," says Mr Wiggins.
More innovations will be needed in everything from agricultural financing to the development of new
drought-resistant crops.
For if last year's food price crisis was, as Prof Barrett puts it, "a
warning shot across the bow rather than a one-off event", it will take a radical rethinking of the mechanisms of the global food system to prevent a reversal of the green revolution, and save low-income families in the world's poorest regions from starvation.
4°C
2°C
85
%
5°C
40
%
75
%
5°C
65
%
