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Business English: Why forecasters should stick to the weather
Is it better to be at work when outside there are large snowfalls and low temperatures?The first working week of the new decade has been characterised by a curious mix of cold and hot air. The cold air has been blowing out of the Arctic and Siberia; the hot air has been blowing out of the mouths of senior businessmen. The first has turned out to be surprisingly warming. The second, utterly chilling.
The snow and ice that have hit Europe and the US are popularly believed to be a bad thing for the economy. Workers can't get to work or have to stay at home to look after children because lily-livered head teachers have decided icy playgrounds are dangerous. Those few who turn up to work spend hours idly gazing out of the window at the snow wondering how they are going to get home.
In fact, there is no evidence that cold weather costs the economy anything at all. A report last week from the Centre for Economics and Business Research says the effect is negligible: any lost productivity quickly gets made up, especially in an economy that is not running at full capacity.
However, I think the true picture is still better than this: a cold snap may actually increase output as it improves workers' morale in four different ways.
For a start, the simple fact of having successfully arrived at work makes you feel a hero. Before you even take off your coat (and hat, gloves, scarf, galoshes, etc), you have already scored a victory over the weather and this early-morning success puts you in a winning frame of mind. Second, the weather allows you to bond with colleagues by giving you a shared interest. Now that The X Factor is finished in the UK, no one watches the same things on telly and so topics of conversation are hard to find. Last week, the first 10 minutes of the day was happily spent discussing the relative rigours of dealing with ice in Muswell Hill versus Colliers Wood - a comparative show of valour that achieves the bonding effect of an outward bound training course but with none of the expense or palaver.
The third reason for the productivity boost is that cold weather makes the office a good place to be. When you have been out in the cold it is great to get into the warm, especially when the heating bills are being paid by someone else.
And finally the experience of being cold gets the blood moving and makes you feel like being active. Cold countries have higher productivity than warmer ones, and this may be part of the reason.
Having successfully got into the office last week, and bragged about the ice on my front steps (considerable), it was time to get down to some work and think seriously about what the new year will hold for businesses.
First, I read an interview in the Financial Times with Alan Middleton, head of PA Consulting, in which he said: "I think 2010 will to some extent be a continuation of 2009." If what he meant was that in 2010 consultants would continue to pass off drivel as wisdom, he had already proved himself right. Then I read Allan Leighton's advice to businesses for the new year. "During uncertain times, it is focused, positive and decisive leadership that is required ... Business needs to adapt to the new realities and get on with driving momentum, being proactive and looking for ways to keep edging forward. Survive and thrive."
Stupid forecasting
Maybe one should forgive the two Al(l)ans for these platitudes and conclude that the problem was as much with the question as the answer. There are some things it makes sense to forecast - such as how much snow is going to fall overnight - and some things it doesn't. The weather changes; the characteristics of good businesses don't. When was the year businesses were advised to lose focus, go backwards, wither and die?
In search of more useful forecasts, I went to the Met Office website. Alas, there was little sign of focus here: on Wednesday morning the Tuesday forecast was still up. So I read instead the description of what its board of directors is supposed to do. "The role of our executive is to lead, direct and manage the Met Office effectively in order to ensure a successful delivery of the aims, objectives and targets ... The members ... operate as a corporately cohesive collective with a shared interest in the successful achievement of our aims ..."
Its job should not to be blowing out hot air - instead it should be telling us exactly when the cold snap is going to end.
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The Financial Times, 08.02.2010
© 2010 The Financial Times,
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Börsen- und Finanzmarktdaten:
Bereitstellung der Kurs- und Marktinformationen erfolgt durch die Interactive Data Managed Solutions AG. Es wird keine Haftung für die Richtigkeit der Angaben übernommen!
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Mit ICRA gekennzeichnet
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